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This study was carried out in the Bucegi Natural Park, a protected area of the Romanian Carpathians. It aims at documenting the potential sensitivity of six widespread Natura 2000 habitat types and of all plants with conservative value (200 taxa) in the mountain area, to the changes in temperature and humidity, predicted for this century. Regional expert knowledge and environmental indicator values were considered in assessing the potential habitat’s sensitivity. The results support the evidence that sensitivity to temperature may be potentially higher for habitats at alpine and subalpine levels (bushes and grasslands) and medium for forest habitats. Sensitivity to moisture was detected as potentially high for forest habitats and as medium for bushes and grasslands at high mountain elevation. Microthermophilic plants have shown a greater share (76-79%) in alpine and subalpine communities, and the hydrophilic plants (86-96%) in forest communities. About 80% of plants of conservation value (microthermophilic or hydrophilic plants) may be potentially sensitive to predicted warming and drought and 44% of them (microthermophilic and hydrophilic plants) to the changes of both parameters. Climate scenarios (2011-2100) and sensitivity maps (Sat – image interpretation with GIS for the whole mountain area) are included.

This booklet provides an overview of major research activities and achievements of MOTIVE. It represents the state of the art in science-based information on adaptation of European forests to climate change. Topics covered include: Information on climate change projections for Europe with emphasis on implications for forest management; shifts in potential tree species ranges based on climate projections; genetic adaptation of tree species to climate change; mapping of disturbance risks to European forests with focus on wind, fire and bark beetles; decision support tools for adaptive forest management; and the MOTIVE toolbox which aims to allow users to select adaptive management actions and optimize management plans. We also look at the types of decision making approaches and their implications for adapting forest management to climate change. A special section describing the ten case study forests is included. Each of the case studies have contrasting environments for forest management, ranging from Finland and Sweden in the North to Spain and Portugal in the South, from Wales in the West to Bulgaria and Romania in the East. A wide range of forest types, management regimes and climates are covered. It is hoped that this will give insight into the challenges which climate change presents, and inform the reader as to the various potential responses around Europe.

Forest canopies buffer climate extremes and promote microclimates that may function as refugia for understory species under changing climate. However, the biophysical conditions that promote and maintain microclimatic buffering and its stability through time are largely unresolved. We posited that forest microclimatic buffering is sensi­tive to local water balance and canopy cover, and we measured this effect during the growing season across a climate gradient in forests of the northwestern United States (US). We found that forest canopies buffer extremes of maximum temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), with biologically meaningful effect sizes. For example, during the growing season, maximum temperature and VPD under at least 50% for­est canopy were 5.3°C and 1.1 kPa lower on average, respectively, compared to areas without canopy cover. Canopy buffering of temperature and vapor pressure deficit was greater at higher levels of canopy cover, and varied with water balance, implying that buffering effects are subject to changes in local hydrology. We project changes in the water balance for the mid-21st century and predict how such changes may impact the ability of western US forests to buffer climate extremes. Our results suggest that some forests will lose their capacity to buffer climate extremes as sites become increasingly water limited. Changes in water balance combined with accelerating canopy losses due to increases in the frequency and severity of disturbance will create potentially non-linear changes in the microclimate conditions of western US forests.